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Document Type |
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Thesis |
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Document Title |
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DEVELOPING A PLAN TO PROVIDE RESIDENTIAL UNITS TO SERVE 30 MILLION UMRAH VISITORS ANNUALLY إعداد خطة لتوفير وحدات سكنية لخدمة 30 مليون معتمر سنوياً |
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Subject |
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Faculty of Engineering |
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Document Language |
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Arabic |
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Abstract |
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This study aims to develop a housing plan to provide residential units for 30 million Umrah visitors annually to achieve one of the goals of the Saudi vision 2030 in Makkah Al-Mokarramah & Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah. In order to achieve this, Umrah visitors’ were forecasted for the targeted period using historical data for international visitors for the past 33 years. This data has been studied to forecast the annual number of Umrah visitors for the next 11 years. In addition, domestic Umrah visitors’ estimations have been reviewed and analyzed to find the best estimation to be added to the international visitors. Different forecasting techniques were used to forecast the future visitors monthly & annually. The best technique among those used in the study to forecast annual data was ARIMA (2, 2, 2) model with the least residual measures of 9% MAPE as best fitted model. The forecasting results indicate that annual number of international Umrah visitors will increase from 7.6 million in 2020 to 12.3 million in 2030. Annual increment percentage decreased from 11% in the historical data to 5% in the forecasted data affected by recent year’s growth due to the variability of issuing Umrah visas before 2030 vision’s announcement. There was no good historical data of domestic Umrah visitors; inaccurate estimates are available which vary from 29% to 65% of total visitors annually. Therefore a questionnaire was designed to collect data, as a results for the analysis of 914 respondents. Around 16.3 million domestic visitors are performing Umrah annually. Only 34% of domestic visitors were interested to stay in Makkah after Umrah performance and their average length of stay was also calculated to be 2.7 days.
Analysis of Umrah visitors housing showed that the residential cycle in Makkah is 12.9 days and only 4 in Madinah. Based on the current housing facilities and the residential cycles, the housing capacity were estimated to be 22 million visitors in Makkah and 18 million in Madinah annually.
It is clearly shown based on historical data and recent growth in Umrah visitors the 30 million visitors’ goal in 2030 will not be achieved. In order to achieve the set goal of international Umrah visitors by 2030 the Saudi government would need to increase the growth rate of issuing Umrah visa with an average of 12% per year approximately. In addition, lots of actions to attract more Umrah visitors such as aggressive marketing campaigns, improve its housing & hospitality facilities, increase the capacity of its utility systems and expand the overall infrastructure in the Holy places. Neither Makkah nor Madinah are ready to receive 30 million international visitors annually. Therefore, a housing plan was developed to achieve the 30 million visitors’ goal. The plan proposed a design for housing complex that consists of 10 buildings of 400 rooms each, with 4 people per room, with a total capacity of 16,000 visitors per residential cycle. Makkah housing facilities need to add 22 of those proposed complexes in order to accommodate 30 million visitors while the number was only 10 complexes for Madinah housing facilities to accommodate the same number of visitors annually. Finally, pre-feasibility study was made for the proposed complexes with Net Present Value for the whole plan of 32 billion SAR, Internal rate of return IRR was 27% and payback period of 5.3 years. |
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Supervisor |
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Prof. Seraj Y. Abed |
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Thesis Type |
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Master Thesis |
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Publishing Year |
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1443 AH
2022 AD |
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Co-Supervisor |
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Dr. Ammar Alkahtani |
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Added Date |
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Tuesday, March 15, 2022 |
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Researchers
| أحمد عمر العمودي | Alamoudi, Ahmed Omar | Researcher | Master | |
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